Ride or Pine: Week 10
Graphic by Anna Gruben
Welcome back to Ride or Pine, the only football column in America where you can get your weekly Bobby Trees content.
We had a pretty solid week nine from a fantasy football perspective, as our ride lineup more than doubled the score of our pine lineup:
Rides: 93.8
Pines: 44.2
This is mostly thanks to James Conner being the leading scorer across all positions and the fact that only one of the pines put up double-digit fantasy points.
This is my favorite article I have written so far this season, so make sure you get to the betting lines portion because there is some great information that any sports gambler would want to see.
For now though, let’s talk fantasy football week 10.
WEEK 10 RIDES:
QB: Matt Ryan @ DAL- This is a bit of a homer pick I will admit (yes, I am a Falcons fan), but it is also backed by some solid logic. Most of you probably haven’t noticed, but Matt Ryan is having a good year. Ryan has two or more passing touchdowns in every game this year but two. This week, they will go down to Dallas, who was just embarrassed by the Broncos. I’m not saying to play him over top-tier guys like Justin Herbert or Matthew Stafford, but I like him as a top 12 QB this week.
RB: Leonard Fournette @ WAS- Ever since Tampa Bay lost to the Rams, Leornard Fournette has taken this backfield for himself. Since week four, Fournette has averaged 18.56 fantasy points per game, which also includes an average of 3.6 receptions per game. It might seem like a no-brainer to start him, but I am predicting that he will finish as a top eight running back this week (the rankings that I’m looking at have him at 14).
RB: Devin Singletary @ NYJ- I don’t even know if I have heard Devin Singletary’s name once this year until Zack Moss left last week with a concussion. I don’t know if Moss will play, but if he doesn’t, I see Singletary as a great option you can pick up off waivers if you are weak at running back. He will also go up against the Jets, who I am hereby giving the nickname of “high school cafeteria” to, because if you watched the Thursday Night game last week against the Colts, the entire squad was eating.
WR: Tyler Lockett @ GB- Just a couple weeks ago, I had Tyler Lockett in the pine lineup because of the inconsistency at quarterback for Seattle. That being said, Russell Wilson is scheduled to make his return against Green Bay, which immediately makes Lockett a great play in all fantasy formats.
WR: Diontae Johnson vs DET- I feel like I need a shower after watching that Bears vs Steelers Monday night game. In my 22 years of life, I have never seen a more dirty and disgraceful football team than the Chicago Bears. Bears linebacker Cassuis Marsh might have committed one of the worst acts of taunting I have ever seen on a football field and should be suspended for the season. I literally want to throw up. Now that I got that out of the way, Diontae Johnson is literally the epitome of the kind of receiver you want in your fantasy lineup every week. He gets an insane amount of targets and has a pretty good chance of getting in the endzone every week. Fellow receiver Chase Claypool also sustained an injury in last week’s game, so Johnson might see even more targets than he normally does.
TE: Mike Gesicki vs BAL- In games that DeVante Parker does not play in, MIke Gesicki averages 15 fantasy points per game. Parker is currently on IR and out this week. Play Gesicki.
FLEX: Hunter Renfrow vs KC- Hunter Renfrow has had five catches in every game this season except for one, which is very good if you are in a PPR league. Not only is he one of the safest WR3/flex options out there, but now that Henry Ruggs is out of the picture, he should see an uptick in production. His first game with Ruggs out, Renfrow finished with a statline of 7/49/1.
D/ST: Indianapolis vs JAX- Even though Jacksonville won last week against the Bills, they were held to only nine points. I like the Indy defense this week.
WEEK 10 PINES:
QB: Jalen Hurts @ DEN- The past couple weeks, we have seen the Eagles rely on the run a lot more than they did in the beginning of the season. Through the first seven weeks, Hurts was averaging 34 passing attempts per game and 24.96 fantasy points per game (3rd highest average in that time frame). The past two weeks, we have seen the Eagles rely more on Jordan Howard, Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell. The result of this change in philosophy has been a blowout win against the Lions and a very close game against the Chargers. In those two games, Hurts has averaged 15.5 passing attempts and 17.15 fantasy points per game (18th best average in that time frame). I wouldn’t expect for the Eagles to stray away from this gameplan, as it seems to be working for them. Also, Denver’s defense is averaging the third-least amount of points against opposing QBs. If you have another option at QB, I would suggest going with them.
RB: Adrian Peterson vs NO- Speaking of good defenses, New Orleans is allowing the fourth least amount of points to running backs. As much as I like AP, I am guaranteeing that he finishes with under 45 rushing yards.
RB: Antonio Gibson vs TB- I had him as a pine two weeks ago, and I have him here again. If you have been a loyal reader of Ride or Pine, you would know how much respect I have for the Tampa Bay defense. This defense allows the least amount of rushing yards per game to running backs, but I will admit, they have struggled to cover running backs coming out of the backfield. Unfortunately for Gibson, he gets absolutely no work in the passing game. I also want to remind everyone that the last game Gibson played in, he was out snapped by rookie Jaret Patterson. Stay away.
WR: Mike Williams vs MIN- After starting the season on fire, Mike Williams has averaged around 5.5 ppr fantasy points over the past three games. Even though the Vikings secondary is questionable, I’m a little worried about playing Williams while he’s in the middle of a slump.
WR: Julio Jones vs NO- All Julio Jones has done this season is disappoint fantasy owners. This Tennessee offense still seems to be really good, but Jones doesn’t seem to be a by-product of that. And as I mentioned before, New Orleans is a tough team for anyone to go against.
TE: Noah Fant vs PHI- Noah Fant is the fourth receiving option on a run-first low-scoring football team. He had a couple okay games when Jerry Jeudy was on IR, but now that Jeudy is back, I don’t see Fant being a reliable option at tight end going forward.
FLEX: Christian Kirk vs CAR- When everyone is healthy, Christian Kirk is the definition of boom or bust. He had a good week last week when DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green were both out with injury, but it looks like they will play this week. Kirk can always break a big play, but the volume won’t be there like it was last week.
D/ST: Dallas vs ATL- Falcons are dropping at least 50 on the Cowboys.
BETTING LINES:
Record ATS: (16-6-1)
Last weeks record: (2-2)
The Cowboys streak has ended, and that is all I’m going to say about it.
Considering how crazy last week was with all of the upsets, I am more than happy to end the weekend on a split.
Other than the Jags winning their first game on American soil for the first time in over 400 days, there was something else that caught my eye.
I started to notice a bit of a trend that was brought to my attention by Rico Bosco of Barstool Sports. He said in a video that underdogs who are on the road playing against a team in their divisions is one of the best bets in football.
At first, I didn’t think anything of it, but as the games started to kickoff on Sunday, I decided I was going to keep an eye on all of the games that were a match to that specific criteria. And as it turns out, the Falcons +6.5 @ NO, Cardinals +5.5 @ SF, and Browns +2 @ CIN not only covered the spread, but they all won outright.
I thought that this may just be a coincidence, but after doing my own research, I found that if you bet on every single one of these games that fit the criteria I just mentioned, you would have only had a losing week two times. Meaning, you would have finished each weekend either ahead or even in seven of the nine weeks.
Overall, the record for teams that fit this criteria are 15-11 on the season, but they are 8-3 since week six.
My favorite thing about this whole thing though is that I did even more research and found that teams who are underdogs on the road, against an opponent in their division and the spread is +7 or less, those teams are 14-7 this season.
Ladies and gentlemen, this whole thing is ground-breaking information.
Unfortunately for us, there is one game this week that fits the basic criteria, as the Jags are +10 on the road against the Colts. I am not going to bet on this game, but if you have the guts to bet on the Jaguars, who knows what could happen.
Thanks for listening to my little rant. Let’s get into this week’s picks.
ATLANTA +9 @ DAL
I know what most of you are thinking. You think because I am a Falcons fan that my judgement is clouded. Well, I’ll have you know that I do not mix business with pleasure (or in my case, it would be misery ever since the 2017 Super Bowl).
Still don’t believe me? Let me give you the facts.
For the past six weeks, the Falcons have won or lost every game by a margin of seven points or less. That is the big reason why I like this spread of +9.
The Cowboys are also coming into this game after losing at home against an inferior team in the Denver Broncos. I will say, however, the Cowboys were going to have this type of game happen to them at least one time this season, so I expect them to play better this week.
They will most likely get back on track and avoid losing two home games in a row, but the bottom line is this: yes, the Cowboys have been my favorite team to bet on this entire season, as I’m sure you all have noticed — my key to success this season has been betting with the trends and riding them for as long as I can. That is why I have bet on them every week thus far.
However, that trend of the Cowboys being undefeated against the spread is now over. The Falcons have been in six one-possession games in a row, and I plan to see it out. I just want you to know that I would be betting on this game even if I wasn’t an Atlanta fan.
The signs are telling me that it’s the Falcons this week. Shoutout Jersey Jerry.
MINNESOTA +2.5 @ LAC
Unlike the Falcons, the Vikings haven’t had seven one-possession games this season.
They have had nine.
Coming into this game on a two game losing streak, I actually like the Vikings to win this game outright. I don’t see a team that is talented losing three games in a row because that simply would not be the Minnesota sports way. They aren’t going to kill your playoff hopes this early in the season, that comes later.
I am also not completely sold on this Chargers team.
Their win against the Chiefs looks worse and worse every week, and their win against the Browns was a bit of a fluke. In their last three games, they have been blown out by the Ravens, suffered a loss at home against the Patriots and won a three-point game against the 3-6 Eagles.
The Vikings’ season isn’t over if they lose this game, but it makes their path to the postseason a lot more difficult and will most likely result in Mike Zimmer being fired. However, the good news for Minnesota is there will probably be more Vikings fans at SoFi Stadium than Chargers fans.
I would suggest waiting to place your bet to see if you can get this spread at +3, just in case this game is decided by a Chargers field goal.
KANSAS CITY -2.5 @ LV
This is not the 2019 or 2020 Kansas City Chiefs that we have seen dominate teams in years past. I think if it were, this line would be around -7, meaning we are getting this spread at a discount.
As bad as the Chiefs have looked, they haven’t been losing to bad teams. All of their losses have come against current playoff teams. And just to be clear, the Raiders are not a playoff team.
The Raiders are coming off a loss against the New York Giants, in a game where Las Vegas honestly looked lost. They obviously are without Jon Gruden and Henry Ruggs, but they have had other injuries on both sides of the ball that I think limits the potential of this team.
I would be truly shocked if the Chiefs didn’t get this thing back on track at some point in the year, and this game against the Raiders is the perfect time to do it. Watch out for a second-half season winning streak to start on Sunday Night Football for Kansas City.
I wholeheartedly believe that the Chiefs will win this game by at least a touchdown.
LOS ANGELES RAMS -4 @ SF
Before last week, I was a believer in this 49ers team. However, that is no longer the case. They were absolutely embarrassed by Arizona who were without Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green and Chase Edmonds.
To make matters worse, San Francisco has lost eight straight games at home going back to last season. Granted, some of those were played in Arizona, but still, not a great statistic to be on the wrong side of. That being said, I don’t know how big of an advantage those homefield points are going to be.
I also recognize the fact that the Rams didn’t have the best performance against the Titans on Sunday night either. However, I believe a lot more in the Rams’ ability to have a bounce-back blowout win than I do in the 49ers.
It also sounds like Von Miller is going to make his debut with the Rams on Monday night, and a defensive line with Aaron Donald, Leonard Floyd and Von Miller is just unfair. Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse for the 49ers, they just lost their standout right tackle Mike McGlinchey for the season. I don’t know who is going to take McGlinchey’s spot, but it’s going to be a long night for him.
If all of that wasn’t enough to convince you, the Rams have Robert Woods a.k.a. Bobby Trees. Yeah, I bet you didn’t think that I was going to sneak that one in there, did you?
If you can stop the run and make Jimmy G (or possibly Trey Lance) beat you by throwing the ball 35-40 times a game, you are probably going to win the game easily.
Everything that I have seen from both teams this season leads me to believe that is exactly what is going to happen on Monday night.
BIG MONEY PARLAY:
Record: (0-2)
I will hit one of these one day.
Baltimore ML vs MIA
Atlanta +9 @ DAL
Indianapolis ML vs JAX
Tampa Bay ML @ WAS
Minnesota +2.5 @ LAC
Arizona ML vs CAR
Kansas City ML @ LV
Los Angeles Rams ML @ SF
$20 to win $360.54
TWO TEAM PARLAY:
Record: (0-2)
Atlanta +9 @ DAL
Minnesota +2.5 @ LAC
$50 to win $131.41