Ride or Pine: Week 12
Graphic by Anna Gruben
Welcome back to Ride or Pine, the only column in America where you can get betting advice and top-tier Thanksgiving puns.
Last week was great in terms of predicting who the pines were going to be, but there is definitely some room for improvement in the ride lineup.
There were two people who did not play in the ride lineup (Marquise Brown and Elijah Mitchell), so I took the average of each team instead to level the playing field. The ride lineup improves to 3-1 on the season, while the pine lineup falls to 1-3.
Rides: 41.5 points, 6.9 per player average
Pines: 51 points, 6.4 per player average
The number one thing that you all should take away from this section is when it comes to the pines, I am pretty spot on. The rides, however, are a little more inconsistent. I’ll continue to go through my thought process and give my reasoning behind all of my picks, but with playoffs coming up, I would follow this set of rules when it comes to my picks.
Rides: hear me out on who I think will do well, but the decision is ultimately yours.
Pines: I am going to be right, the decision is not yours. Do not play anyone in this lineup.
RIDES:
QB: Kirk Cousins @ SF- Coming off a huge win against the Green Bay Packers, Kirk Cousins seems to be playing the best football of his career. In terms of fantasy football, Cousins has thrown at least two touchdowns in 7 out of 11 games this season. That alone gives him a very safe floor against a 49ers defense that is middle of the pack in terms of passing defense.
RB: David Montgomery @ DET- In his two games back from injury, David Montgomery has not given you a whole lot of reasons to trust him. However, I think he gets back on track this week against the Lions, who he scored two touchdowns against earlier this season. It’s also worth noting that the Lions allow the second most points to opposing running backs.
RB: Saquon Barkley vs PHI- It was Saquon Barkley’s first game back from injury last week against Tampa Bay — a game where I wasn’t expecting him to do a whole lot. I think now that he’s got a game under his belt, we will see a version of Barkley that we are used to seeing. I had him as a pine last week, but this week I think Saquon is at the head of the table.
WR: Michael Gallup vs LV- With Amari Cooper out with COVID and Ceedee Lamb listed as questionable, Michael Gallup might very well be the number one wide receiver in this high octane offense on Thanksgiving. Mark him down for at least 100 yards or a touchdown if that is the case.
WR: Elijah Moore @ HOU- In the past three weeks, Elijah Moore has four touchdowns coming from the likes of Joe Flacco, Mike White and Josh Johnson. After a slow start to the season, it seems that Moore has found his stride, and in my eyes, he is a must start going forward.
TE: Dalton Schultz vs LV- For the same reasons as Gallup, there is going to be a lot of opportunity for Dalton Schultz this week. The tight end position is one that you rarely feel good about unless you have one of the top guys, but I think that Schultz has a top-five finish this week.
FLEX: Darnell Mooney @ DET- With touchdowns in back-to-back weeks, I don’t think that you can keep Darnell Mooney on the bench any longer. It also looks like Allen Robinson will miss his second-straight game, making Mooney the only viable receiving option against a defense who looks like they are playing in slow motion after their fourth plate of Thanksgiving dinner. Plus, it gives you a reason to watch this game, which might be one of the worst Thanksgiving games ever.
D/ST: Philadelphia Eagles @ NYG- This Eagles defense has been playing really well as of late, and now they get to go up against Daniel Jones. I also just flat out despise Daniel Jones and everything that he stands for as a NFL quarterback. I hope he throws five interceptions.
PINES:
QB: Derek Carr @ DAL- Since losing Henry Ruggs, Derek Carr has not been putting up the numbers that we saw him produce at the beginning of the season. He is also going up against the Dallas defense who held Patrick Mahomes to zero passing touchdown last week.
RB: Miles Sanders @ NYG- Here is something that you aren’t ready for: Miles Sanders is just not that guy. In a game where the Eagles scored 40 points, Sanders only put up 7.4 fantasy points. I would not trust Sanders going forward unless he gives you a reason to in the future.
RB: Myles Gaskin vs CAR- Carolina’s defense allows the fifth-least amount of points to opposing running backs. That is bad news for Myles Gaskin, who is only fantasy viable when he has a good matchup.
WR: Chase Claypool @ CIN- Chase Claypool is another one of those guys where I am just simply not a believer. If he doesn’t get deep targets, he’s going to have a very mediocre week. This offense goes through Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson and Pat Friemuth in the red zone. The Bengals also allow the ninth-least amount of points to opposing wide receivers.
WR: Tyler Boyd vs PIT- I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: if JaMarr Chase and Tee Higgins are active and playing, Tyler Boyd has almost no value. Boyd has just 10.8 fantasy points in the last two weeks combined. Stay away.
TE: Noah Fant vs LAC- With Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick all healthy and in the lineup, Noah Fant finds himself on the outside looking in on this run-first Denver Broncos team. Fant was a good play when some of these other guys were out of the picture, but he hasn't had a touchdown in five weeks, and I don’t see it happening this week either against a great Chargers secondary.
FLEX: Ty Johnson @ HOU- You might think with Michael Carter out of the picture that Ty Johnson is a good play — I’m not buying it. This Jets team is still horrendous, and I don’t think that Johnson gets all of the snaps with Tevin Coleman still in the mix. Don’t expect anything above 10 points from Johnson.
D/ST: Pittsburgh Steelers @ CIN- With most of their best players out, this defense is laughable. I expect the Bengals to carve them up this Sunday — no offense to Thanksgiving turkeys.
BETTING LINES:
Record ATS: (20-9-1)
Last weeks record: (2-1)
Lock of the week (0-1)
How fitting is it that the one spread pick I got wrong was my lock of the week. Regardless, we are back to our winning ways over here on Ride or Pine, and I fully intend to have back-to-back winning weeks.
CHICAGO -3 @ DET
We have to bet on a Thanksgiving game this week — it would be wrong not to. That being said, this Bears spread is by far the most appealing to me.
The Bears are coming off a very close game against the Baltimore Ravens — a game in which they lost their starting quarterback, Justin Fields. The Bears have already announced that Andy Dalton will start against the Lions.
Obviously, both of these teams are pretty bad, but the Bears are a lot closer to average than the Lions are. Something else to keep an eye on is: who will be the quarterback for Detroit? It sounds like Jared Goff, but if he can’t go, then it’s going to be Tim Boyle again. Boyle might be the worst quarterback to step foot on the field this season.
Even if Goff does play, he won’t be 100%. Even if he was at 100% he is still a bottom five quarterback in the NFL.
It’s also worth noting that these two teams played back in week four, where the Bears won 24-14, and the Lions have lost four-straight games on Thanksgiving.
I know it doesn’t feel right to put your money on Andy Dalton, but for one week, let's ride with the Red Rifle.
MINNESOTA +3 @ SF
To be quite frank, this is getting out of hand. How in god's name is Minnesota not favored in this game?
I don’t even care if they were favored; we are betting on Minnesota until further notice. Period.
Minnesota has back-to-back wins against the Chargers and Packers, which are two games they looked fantastic in. That being said, San Francisco also deserves some respect and credit, as they are also coming into this game on a two-game win streak (Rams and Jaguars). However, I think that the Vikings are still better on both sides of the ball.
The 49ers are a team who depend heavily on the run. It not only sets up their entire pass game, but if they cannot run the football effectively, they will almost certainly lose.
Given the way this Vikings team is playing, you cannot bet against them. Worst case scenario, it will be another close game the Vikings lose by a field goal. That covers this spread.
THIS IS THE LOCK OF THE WEEK!
ATALANTA -1 @ JAX
As bad as my Falcons have played this season, they are not going to lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars. You can screenshot this right now — there is a zero percent chance the Falcons lose this game.
Yes, they have looked horrendous these past two games, and that is why this spread is so low. The Atlanta team that has been on the field the last two weeks is not the team you are going to see against the Jaguars this Sunday.
I’m sure most of you are thinking that this is a homer pick, and you are right, it is.
For the past eight weeks, I have been giving my thoughts and advice on my favorite spreads for each week. I have not seen a spread more ridiculous than this one. If the Falcons lose this game, which is the only way that you lose money, I will retire from this column, change my major to theatre and spend the next four years of my life dedicating myself to the craft that is performance arts.
Consider this week a double lock, because I am putting my life savings on this game.
I hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving and a great Hanukkah.
If this is the last column that I ever write, it’s been a good ride.