The Death of the Mid-Range Jump Shot
The mid-range jump shot was mastered by many of the best basketball players of all time and for a period it dominated the NBA.
However, basketball is an ever-evolving game and there has been a dramatic decrease in mid-range jump shot use due to a simultaneous increase in three-pointers attempted.
Data analytics has been a key part of the three-point revolution. If an NBA player gets three points for making a 23.8-foot jump shot and only two points for making a 23.7-foot jump shot, they’re likely to take the extra step back.
“I’d say it’s all based on the analytics,” Zach Lea, a member of the University of Minnesota-Duluth’s men’s basketball team said in response to the decline in the use of the mid-range. “Three is worth more than two.”
“Even at Duluth, we focus on getting catch-and-shoot threes or driving it all the way to the rim versus settling for shots in the mid-range,” Lea said.
A chart showing the increased use of the three-point jump shot in the last 20 NBA seasons. Credit: Kirk Goldsberry, 2020
The game of basketball looks totally different today opposed to 20 years ago. If there is one player who can be credited with this three-point era we’ve entered, it’s Stephen Curry of the Golden State Warriors.
Curry is widely considered to be the greatest three-point shooter of all time. As of Oct. 26, 2022, according to ESPN.com, he currently sits at 3,137 career three-pointers made.
In the 2021-2022 NBA season, he broke Ray Allen’s former record of 2,973 three-pointers and shortly after became the first player to surpass 3,000.
There are only two players who have made more than 300 three-pointers in a season: James Harden once and Stephen Curry four times. Curry is the only player who has made over 400 in a season, and, out of the top 20 three-pointers made by a single player in a single season, only two were before 2015.
The trend makes sense. If a player shoots 50% from the mid-range, they are considered very good. However, that player will only average one point per shot. If that player wishes to achieve the same level of efficiency from the three-point line, they would only need to make 33.33%
The increasing popularity of the three-pointer is likely here to stay. Statistical analysis has revealed the advantages of the three-pointer, sparking a generation of basketball junkies to run to and embrace the change.