This year’s middleweight championship fight at UFC 271, the belt was being fought once again between Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker. The two both improved so much since the last time we saw them fight back in 2019. Now it was just the question as to who will take home the belt.

February’s UFC 271 pay-per-view event was headlined by Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker battling for the Middleweight championship. Poster by UFC.

Both still matched up great with speed and power resting on their side. Their creative minds and fighting skills were impressive. Every move that was shown was both calculated and well-thought-out. While Whittaker showed more patience this year than he did before, he still exerted a lot of energy with his attacks, lunging at almost every chance that he got.

Throughout the first round, Whittaker was very in control of the match until the last minute when Adesanya gained momentum. Adesanya was very calm and calculated with every punch thrown at him and didn’t return it until he was certain. He had great control over his whole body and amazing head kicks. He seemed more reserved in his punches, and it showed in the second round how understanding the way your opponent fights can help you with how to approach them.

In the second round, Whittaker showed some great explosive movements, which in turn caused Adesanya to find the rhythm of the fight and control the situation better than Whittaker might’ve hoped for. As the round went on, Whittaker regained control and took Adesanya to the ground, even getting his back at one point. Adesanya was able to promptly get back to his feet where he effectively broke free of Whittaker’s grasp. The fourth round began with Whittaker taking the back of Adesanya and him breaking free effortlessly once again.

After the first round, Whittaker seemed to be striking more cautiously, wanting to protect his face as much as he could. Though his hands were fast defensively, especially when a kick was thrown his way, they slowed in offense. Another intriguing aspect of this fight’s matchup, Adesanya's head movements matched the swiftness of Whittakers blocks, effectively moving out of the way at almost every punch. Whittaker holds Adesanya in a clinch and throws a few kicks in before the bell sounded signaling the end of round 5.

What an incredible fight! With his eleventh consecutive win, Adesanya beat Whittaker once again, bringing his record to 22-1-0 and protecting his belt for the third year in a row.

UFC 272 Preview

When looking at the main card of UFC 272, it’s safe to say that talent-wise, it is a fairly weak card. That being said, the card has a lot to offer as far as storylines. There are a lot of contributing factors that can give viewers a great deal of invested interest into these fights. The most interesting aspect of this card is the fact that each bout features a fighter that has a tremendous amount to prove. Let’s go fight-by-fight.

All odds are subject to change.

Heavyweight Bout: Serghei Spivac (-210) vs. Greg Hardy (+175)

Despite having a 7-4 record at 33 years of age and coming off of back-to-back losses, Hardy finds himself on another pay-per-view (PPV) main card due to name recognition. In his short career thus far, Hardy has faced three truly formidable opponents: Alexander Volkov, Marcin Tybura and Tai Tuivasa. He lost all of these fights handedly. Spivac may not be up to the level of these fighters, but he is a higher level opponent than what Hardy’s resumé should grant him at this point, and this is the last shot that the UFC will take on Hardy — at least for a while.

If Hardy drops this fight, the level of competition and hype for his next several fights will drop considerably, and he will have to claw his way back to the potential of a PPV main card spot — not an ideal position to be in at 33 years old and just getting into the swing of your career. Spivac is 27 years old and 4-1 in his last five fights. He can afford to take a loss here. This is a must-win fight for Hardy.

Despite all this extra motivation, I frankly don’t feel that Hardy is a good fighter. There’s no doubt that he has knockout power, and that would be his only path to victory, but Spivac has significantly more tools with which he can emerge victorious. Spivac’s striking acumen and ground game are much more complex than Hardy’s. He’s beaten better competition and is no doubt hungry for a rebound after a poor showing in his last bout against Tom Aspinall. I, by no means, consider this fight a lock for Spivac, but I remain confident that he is the better fighter.

Prediction: Serghei Spivac wins by Unanimous decision.

Welterweight Bout: #14 MW Kevin Holland (-255) vs. Alex Oliveira (+205)

The implications of this bout cannot be overstated. Oliveira has strung together a respectable UFC career. However, at 34, his career has fizzled out quite a bit. That is unlikely, but having lost six of his last eight fights, it is possible that a loss here could spell the end of his time in the UFC. The UFC’s tendency to continue matching him up with very relevant fighters leads me to believe that this isn’t the case, but this could be the last notable fight he gets if he doesn’t step up here.

Kevin Holland enters the octagon for his first time this year at UFC 272. Photo by Jeff Bottari, Zuffa LLC

In the opposite corner, after winning an astonishing five fights in 2020, Holland had a very rough year in 2021. After back-to-back losses and an initial rear-naked choke loss that was ruled a no contest (which I agree with), Holland has left the middleweight division behind in the hopes that his massive frame and strength will serve him well at welterweight. With this leap of faith, Holland will need to re-establish himself as a legitimate contender in the UFC.

When you look at Oliveira’s tremendous victory against Carlos Condit, a UFC legend with a similarly long frame, it begs the question as to why the odds for this fight aren’t closer than they are. Though I disagree with Holland being a more than two-to-one favorite out of respect for Oliveira, further examining the tale of the tape reveals the fact that Holland has an 81 inch reach, a number that I’ve certainly never seen from a welterweight. This combined with Holland’s complex striking acumen and strength that will help him in the ground game (mainly defensively) leave me confident that Holland will emerge victorious. His two losses last year came against Brunson and Vettori, who were able to basically lay on top of him for 25 minutes. Nobody in the welterweight division will be able to do that with the exception of Khamzat Chimaev. Holland winning five fights in 2020 was arguably the story of the year — I believe his new trajectory at welterweight will be one of the biggest stories of 2022.

Prediction: Kevin Holland wins by unanimous decision.

Featherweight Bout: #10 Edson Barboza (+130) vs #11 Bryce Mitchell (-150)

This fight is an extremely difficult one to call. The bout between Barboza and Mitchell contains the closest odds on the card, and I would’ve set them even closer.

In one corner we have Edson Barboza — a well-established striker with a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ) brown belt, who’s been a solid contender in the UFC for years. Unfortunately, at 36, there is no doubt that he is not the same fighter as he once was, and his days of toppling top contenders such as Dan Hooker, Beneil Dariush and Anthony Pettis are likely over. However, Barboza has shown that he possesses the ability to take down fighters of this caliber — Mitchell hasn’t.

For those who don’t know, Mitchell has been one of the most hyped up-and-comers in the UFC as of late. His fighting style is predominantly composed of grappling and ground control. That being said, he hasn’t fought in a year-and-a-half, and he’s never fought a fighter of Barboza’s caliber.

On the other hand, Barboza has been staying active, but looked terrible in his last fight against Giga Chikadze, who I do not believe is a great fighter. This is a huge red flag for Barboza, but there are other reasons why I believe that he will win.

Though I could absolutely see Mitchell pulling off a victory, I really have not bought into his hype train yet. He has an extremely limited striking repertoire from what I’ve seen, and I think people are disregarding how much of a step-up in competition this fight is for him.

The motivation is there for both fighters — Barboza is looking to show that he is worthy of still being a top 10 contender at featherweight, and Mitchell is looking to show that his hype is not misplaced.

There are two of Barboza’s past fights that I could see being a mold for how this fight could play out. On one hand, you could look at his fight against Kevin Lee, where he was absolutely dismantled by Lee’s far-superior ground game; on the other hand, you have Barboza’s victory against Beneil Dariush, where he was able to stave off one of the more skilled grapplers in the game. Mitchell’s lack of experience and activity lends me more confidence that this fight will play out similarly to that Dariush fight.

Prediction: Edson Barboza wins by unanimous decision.

Catchweight Bout: #6 Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Renato Moicano (no odds yet)

There are no odds for this fight yet, as it was just set with five days notice. I had just wrapped up my preview of Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev, of which I had Fiziev winning; however, like the Fiziev fight, this bout presents a very interesting matchup for Dos Anjos.

In the Embedded vlog series for UFC 272, Dos Anjos stated that he is still steadfast in chasing UFC gold. Photo by Jeff Bottari, Zuffa LLC

Moicano is a submission artist — Dos Anjos has never been submitted in his UFC career, though his jaw injury in the first minute of his fight against Clay Guida technically counted as a submission loss. That being said, at this point in his career, Dos Anjos’s takedown defense is absolutely brutal. Moicano will be able to get him to the ground, but Dos Anjos has faced significantly better grapplers — he will not be submitted.

We witnessed in Dos Anjos’s last fight that his wrestling is still a force to be reckoned with. He will be able to reciprocate an offensive and defensive ground game. Additionally, I simply think that Dos Anjos has more ways to win the fight.

I’ve watched Moicano fight twice, and I’ve been relatively unimpressed; however, I cannot find footage from his fight against Calvin Kattar, where he demolished Kattar on the feet. I have no idea how that happened. I don’t know if Donald Cerrone was posing as Kattar with a polyjuice potion, but Kattar is a significantly better striker than Moicano, and I would give the nod to Dos Anjos in that department as well.

Another advantage that Dos Anjos has over Moicano is strength. Though Moicano will most likely weigh more on fight night due to a quicker cut, Dos Anjos has swung around much bigger boys than him, and is used to fighting at a larger weight. Dos Anjos also has much more power in his strikes. Not that Dos Anjos has fists of granite, Moicano just has zero power.

The last and most glaring advantage that Dos Anjos has is that Moicano is taking this fight on five days’ notice. It’s impossible to overstate how much that hobbles any fighter approaching a bout.

The biggest advantage that I would say Moicano has over Dos Anjos is his takedown defense, but I don’t see him maintaining top control over Dos Anjos, and that is his only path to a decision victory.

The stakes for this fight are limited for Moicano — he is unranked and taking on the #6 contender on five days’ notice; however, this is a crippling blow to Dos Anjos’s resumé if he doesn’t pull through here. However, I’m liking his chances.

I’d think that Dos Anjos would be a solid favorite once the odds are released, but maybe the oddsmakers know something about Moicano that I don’t. When I look at his stats, that fight against Kattar is just staring me in the face and giving the middle finger to everything that I’ve said.

Prediction: Rafael Dos Anjos wins by TKO.

The Main Event

Welterweight Bout: #1 Colby Covington (-320) vs. #6 Jorge Masvidal (+250)

Here we are at the main event, and what a polarizing, rage-fueled and personal main event fight this will be. I’ll provide a little bit of background info for those who might not be familiar with the background surrounding this fight, as it is the main reason that this is a PPV main event.

Masvidal and Covington were roommates, teammates at American Top Team (a high-profile MMA gym) and according to the two of them on separate occasions, best friends. That all changed when Covington and American Top Team cut ties with one another. There are multiple conflicting points as to what led to this and we will most likely never know exactly what happened. That being said, I’ve done a lot of research into this topic and it seems that the most likely cause of this scenario is a combination of Covington’s promotional tactics and Covington withholding payment from American Top Team striking coach, Paulinho Hernandez. This withheld payment was allegedly covered by Masvidal, as both Masvidal and Hernandez claim. Hernandez is like a father to Masvidal, so he and Covington now hate each other.

There’s more to it than that, but that’s the gist, so let’s throw fists.

Both fighters are coming off title-fight losses against the welterweight champion and top-ranked pound-for-pound fighter, Kamaru Usman. They’ve both fought him twice — they’ve both lost to him twice. This is the battle of Usman’s sons. However, it’s no secret that Covington fared MUCH better against Usman than Masvidal did.

Though Usman defeated Covington fairly well in both fights, they were very close fights, and they seemed to be closely-matched fighters. Usman was in an entirely different realm of fighting than Masvidal as he pummeled him through two emphatic victories. This is just one of several factors that contribute to Covington being a three-to-one favorite — as he should be.

There are extremely few fighters on the planet that can go toe-to-toe with Usman at the level that Covington did. He is a world-class fighter. This next take is going to upset a lot of people, but Masvidal is not that guy. I do not think Masvidal is anywhere near as good as people make him out to be.

His most notable victory is his five-second knockout of Ben Askren — one of the craziest knockouts in UFC history. If he doesn’t land that lucky shot right out of the gate (Masvidal throws like five of those flying knees per fight), I believe Askren beats him even being out of his prime. However, the rest is history, and Masvidal added an enormous boost to his resumé. This also goes to show that anything can happen on any given night in MMA. Masvidal could absolutely land a shot like that and put Covington down for the count, but Covington is 100% the better fighter just like Askren was the better fighter.

I don’t think even the most loyal of Masvidal fans would dispute that Covington is the significantly better wrestler. I believe Covington is the stronger striker as well. I understand that’s another hot take, but it absolutely should not be. Let me further explain my Masvidal skepticism.

His other two most notable victories aside from the Askren knockout are his victories against Nate Diaz and Darren Till. I hate to seem like I’m just hating on everyone, but these are two more fighters that I feel have been horrendously overrated. Till isn’t really overrated anymore, as people are seemingly aware that he isn’t very good. As far as Diaz goes, oddsmakers seem very aware that he isn’t very good, but he is still regarded as one of the biggest stars in the sport’s history, and I think that regard is extremely misplaced.

Look at Masvidal’s fight previous to these two — he got handedly out-struck by Stephen Thompson. Thompson didn’t just beat Masvidal; he dismantled Masvidal. He showed that he was better than Masvidal. Masvidal couldn’t get anything substantial going, and he’s supposed to be the best boxer in the UFC.

Masvidal got egregiously out-boxed by Usman. Covington, on the other hand, was right along with him trading blows for nearly 50 minutes. Covington has never been exposed on his feet to the level that Masvidal has.

Rounding out our theme of fighters having something to prove: Covington is the number one contender. He is widely regarded as the hands-down, best welterweight behind Usman. A loss to the sixth-ranked fighter here, and that vanishes. Not only that, but it will add several years to the timeframe for another title fight for Covington.

In the opposite corner, Masvidal has even more riding on this fight. I am surprised that he took on a fight against an opponent who would be so heavily favored, because this could be it for him. He is a massive PPV draw, so the UFC has been throwing him into PPV main events. They let him march in against Usman with days’ notice, knowing he would get clapped because of his numbers. They let him get another shot at Usman to attach Masvidal’s massive name to the first in-person event since the start of the pandemic. They even made up an imaginary belt to throw him into a main event against Diaz, setting a PPV main event of fighters who made up the number three and seven spots of the rankings. Now, he has somehow mustered a shot at the number one contender. There’s no made-up title. They’ve just got a regular old welterweight bout at the main event slot because he’s Jorge Masvidal.

This is it for him. He’s 3-4 in his last seven fights. He’s had four underwhelming headlinings in a row and sits at the number six spot in the welterweight rankings. If he loses on Saturday, I could see him securing a co-main event spot, I could see him securing the main event of a UFC Fight Night, but this will be his last PPV main event if he loses. I don’t see him climbing his way back into that arena at this stage of his career, regardless of notoriety.

Prediction: Colby Covington wins by unanimous decision.

Those are my picks for UFC 272. Hit us up on social media if you disagree with any of them — we’d love to hear your takes! Despite all the craziness surrounding this card and its inherently unorthodox nature, it should be a fun one, and I’m looking forward to watching. I’ve seen a lot of people ripping on this card and calling it weak, and I’ll admit that I’ve ripped on it a bit too, but as MMA fans, this is the card that we’ve got — enjoy it! The UFC 272 main card goes down Saturday, March 5 at 9 p.m. central on ESPN+ pay-per-view.

UFC 271 main event recap, UFC 272 predictions