Week eight fantasy football: Ride or Pine?
Graphic by Anna Gruben
Welcome back to Ride or Pine, the only place in America where you can receive fantasy football/sports betting advice from a guy who was once told in high school that he has a face for sports talk radio.
While that may be the case, I am on an absolute hot streak right now picking against the spread (ATS) and also with my fantasy football advice. Don’t need a TV face to do that now, do you?
It’s gotten to the point where I am now telling my friends, “No, I cannot attend your club soccer game. Monday Night Football is on, and I can't think of a better way to spend my time then to watch Saints vs Seahawks.” My time and energy only goes to one place and one place only, and that is to you: the loyal readers of Ride or Pine who expect nothing less than top-tier analysis.
So without further adieu, let’s get started.
As I mentioned before, I pretty much got all of my fantasy football picks right. The only pick that I flat out got wrong was Josh Jacobs, who continues to amaze everyone in the NFL with his outstanding ability (this is a joke, he is terrible). The good news for Jacobs is he scored another touchdown and averaged over four yards per carry for the first time this season. The bad news is he left the game with an injury and only had 29 rushing yards. Thank goodness he doesn’t play this week, as the Raiders are on bye. He is definitely living rent free in my head.
Players that I told you not to start last week were: Odell Beckham Jr. (WR56), Tyler Lockett (WR77), Miles Sanders (RB44), Justin Fields (QB24) and Bears D/ST (DST26).
Alright, let's get into week eight.
RIDES: Do you have your updated record?
QB: Carson Wentz vs TEN- If you haven’t been paying attention to the Colts this season, Carson Wentz has shown us these past couple of weeks that he can be trusted as a quality streaming quarterback. He put up 20 fantasy points on Sunday night, in the pouring rain, against a strong San Francisco defense. So, put your money on him to have a better performance at home, indoors, against the lackluster Tennessee pass defense.
RB: Cordarrelle Patterson vs CAR- I would assume that if you have Cordarrelle Patterson that you feel good starting him every week, but just in case you are on the fence, let me make the case. Patterson is currently averaging the seventh most fantasy points per game among running backs, he averages 4.5 receptions per game and it seems that his role has just gotten even larger in this Atlanta backfield, as Mike Davis saw his role heavily reduced. Patterson’s matchup against Carolina is definitely not ideal, but the volume is there, and I believe the talent is as well. He is a must start this week.
RB: Darrel Williams vs NYG- The entire Chiefs offense was more than disappointing against the Titans, and Darrel Williams is no exception. However, I don’t see a scenario where the Chiefs play like that two weeks in a row. As long as Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out, Williams is going to carry the load on the ground. I also think this is a game where the Chiefs score at least 30 points against a bottom-tier team like the Giants. Mark Williams down for at least one touchdown.
WR: Tee Higgins @ NYJ- Tee Higgins is one of those players you just need to remain patient with and continue to play as a WR2. Not only do Ja’Marr Chase and Higgins have the same amount of red zone targets this season, but Higgins averages more targets-per-game than Chase. Stay patient with Higgins — his time will come. Perhaps that time is this weekend against the Jets, who just allowed 54 points to the Patriots.
WR: Antonio Brown @ NO- I wrote about AB in last week’s article, but unfortunately, he did not play due to an ankle injury. If you have Brown on your team and don’t start him, you are playing a dangerous game. Refer to last week’s article if you need any more convincing.
TE: C.J. Uzomah @ NYJ- Obviously C.J. Uzomah isn’t a must-start tight end, but he is a guy who has proven that he has some upside in the high-powered Bengal offense. If you are looking for a good streaming option or a back-up tight end, Uzomah is your guy.
FLEX: DeVonta Smith @ DET- DeVonta Smith is getting a decent amount of receptions and a decent amount of yards. The only thing that is lacking is those touchdowns. His only touchdown came in week one against the Falcons. Call it a hunch, but I am going to guarantee that Smith finds the end zone in week eight against this horrendous Lions defense.
D/ST: Bengals @ NYJ- This decision was as simple as looking at who the Jets play this week. Whoever starts between Joe Flacco and Mike White does not matter. Pick up the Bengals defense now.
PINES:
QB: Tua Tagovailoa @ BUF- The fact that Tua Tagovailoa is coming off of a four touchdown game against the Falcons might have you wondering why I have him on the pine list for this week. Well, the simple answer is that Tagovailoa is just not that good of a quarterback. Trust me, I wish he was the savior of the Dolphins and was able to get them into the playoffs, but I just don't see it happening this year. I also don’t see Tagovailoa putting up great numbers against the Bills defense, who allow the least amount of fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Stay away.
RB: Antonio Gibson @ DEN- I saw a tweet today that said Antonio Gibson is the NFC version of Josh Jacobs, and I honestly couldn’t agree more. Gibson was a guy who I drafted on several of my teams because I thought he was going to be a sure-fire top-ten running back. Well, we can kiss that dream goodbye. Not only is he playing hurt every game with a shin injury, but he has zero work in the passing game, and last week against the Packers, Gibson was out-snapped by J.D. McKissic. I also recognize that you might not be deep at the running back position and that Gibson is your best option. To that, I would say trade him by any means necessary. You will not win with him as your RB1 or RB2.
RB: Melvin Gordon vs WAS- I said it last week, and I’ll say it again this week: this Denver backfield is a mess. We saw Gordon’s ceiling last week when he scored a touchdown against the Browns, and he still finished outside the top 24 running backs. Javonte Williams is a better play than him at this point in the season simply because he’s younger, more explosive and gets a lot more work in the passing game.
WR: Brandin Cooks vs LAR- I actually love Brandin Cooks the player, but his situation couldn’t be any worse as a member of the Houston Texans. The good news for Cooks is that Tyrod Taylor is coming back this week, which helps Cooks tremendously. However, Cooks is also going up against Jalen Ramsey and the Rams defense. This is especially concerning for Cooks because Ramsey’s nickname should be “Houdini” the way that he makes number one receivers disappear. Find another option at receiver this week.
WR: Jarvis Landry vs PIT- There isn’t much to say about Jarvis Landry other than he is in one of the worst passing offenses in the league. I don’t see him doing a whole lot this week against a tough Pittsburgh defense, especially if Case Keenum is still under center.
TE: Mo Alie-Cox- The tight end position as a whole is pretty boom or bust, but Mo Alie-Cox only has two possible outcomes. He is either scoring a touchdown, or he is putting up less than three fantasy points. He’s not a threat anywhere else on the field other than the red zone. That’s not the tight end you want to stream when there are better options out there.
FLEX: Corey Davis vs CIN- The little fantasy value that Corey Davis had left disappeared when Zach Wilson went out with injury. If you want to roll the dice with Joe Flacco and Mike Smith under center then be my guest, but I’ll be caught dead before I have Davis in any of my lineups in week eight.
D/ST: Panthers @ ATL- Honestly, this is a bit of a homer pick, but I truly think that the Falcons are going to catch fire here and put up some big numbers against Carolina at home. I know what the stats say about this Panthers defense and how good they have been this season, but I simply don’t care. I was right about Elijah Mitchell last week when I really had no statistics to back it up, and I am going to be right again this week. Panthers D/ST will score less than five points this week.
BETTING LINES:
Record ATS: (12-2-1)
Last weeks record: (2-1)
THE WINNING STREAK LIVES ON! A huge shout out to the Patriots for blowing out the Jets and also to the Colts for winning a nasty game against the 49ers. This is the sixth column that I have written so far this season and we have yet to encounter a losing weekend. Also, this might be my favorite week of spreads that I have seen so far this season.
DALLAS -2.5 @ MIN
What else is there to say about the Dallas Cowboys that I haven’t said already? They are undefeated against the spread, they get it done on both sides of the ball and they have made me (and you if you have bet on them) ridiculous amounts of money.
I also said in last week’s article that I was going to bet on this spread even if it was -20, and to be honest, I am shocked how close this spread is. The Cowboys have obviously established themselves as a contender in the NFC, and the Minnesota Vikings are barely pulling out games against the Lions and Panthers. However, I will say, the potential of this Vikings team is a lot higher than the current level they are playing at. They have weapons on both sides of the ball, especially on offense, but the X-factor in this game is without a doubt Kirk Cousins.
Unfortunately for the Vikings, the Cowboys are not only coming off a bye, but Cousins’ all-time record against the Cowboys is 2-7. That being said, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Vikings win this game, as I feel they are really good at playing up to their competition. However, if this is a close game, I trust Dak Prescott a whole lot more than I trust Cousins.
Do the right thing and ride with the team that has gotten us this far.
TAMPA BAY -5 @ NO
I don’t know if I have ever been more shocked at a point spread in my entire life.
This spread is honestly laughable if you just think about the recent games that each team has played. Tampa Bay is coming into this game following three straight wins (two of which were blowouts) and have been playing a great brand of football. The Saints, however, are coming off a terrible win against the Seattle Seahawks who were without both Russell Wilson and Chris Carson. They also have losses against the Giants and Panthers.
Don’t overthink this pick because you just remembered the Saints won both of their regular season games against the Bucs last season. This is not the same Tampa Bay from the beginning of last season, and quite frankly, this isn’t the same Saints team either. Last season was when the Saints had Drew Brees and Jared Cook still on their roster. This 2021 Saints team is rolling with Jameis Winston, who has lived up to all of the criticism that he faced going into this season.
The Saints do have Alvin Kamara, but I promise you it won’t be enough. The Bucs don’t lose to mediocre teams, which is what the Saints are. They blow teams like the Saints out of the water. That is my prediction for this game and anything less than a 10 point win will truly shock me.
This is a great game to throw your money on.
BENGALS -10 @ NYJ
I truly apologize to any of the Jets fans that are reading this, as I have been bullying them throughout this entire article. That won’t stop me from continuing to do it, but I just thought I’d say I’m sorry.
Coming off of a huge win against the Ravens, the Bengals have proved that they are a threat in the AFC.
The simple fact is that this spread is more favorable than the one that we bet on last weekend against the Jets. The only thing that is different, is that the first place Cincinnati Bengals (I am sick that I actually just wrote those words) are head and shoulders better than the New England Patriots.
I honestly don’t know if I am more scared of Mike White or Joe Flacco, either way, the Bengals pass rushers are going to be the scariest thing either of them see this upcoming Halloween.
I will admit that it does feel weird to put this much trust in the Bengals to win in a blowout, but I am putting just as much trust in the Jets to lose this one in a blow out. It doesn’t matter if this game is played in New York, New Jersey or New Mexico, the Jets will lose by at least two touchdowns.
Give me the Bengals in this one.
SAN FRANCISCO -3 @ CHI
I usually only do three spreads for the week, but this one was too sweet not to write about.
Despite betting against the 49ers last week, I actually really do like this team. I think that they would have kept that game against the Colts a lot closer if they weren’t playing in a monsoon of rain. This is a team that wants to beat you with defense, zone runs, and play action passes. In ideal conditions, the 49ers are an above average team that can play with anybody. The same cannot be said for the Chicago Bears.
The Bears are coming off back-to-back losses against the Bucs and Packers, and as long as Justin Fields is under center, I am a non-believer in this Bears team.
I don’t really have a lot of statistics to support my claim on this bet. The only thing that I trust are my eyes, as I have watched every single NFL game this season. Right now, my eyes are telling me that the 49ers are better at every aspect of the game than the Bears.
The 49ers win this one by at least a touchdown.
PARLAYS:
This is something new that I want to start doing from here on out. Every week, I am going to be giving out one big money parlay and one two-game parlay. I will also be keeping a record on how many of them I hit on.
Talk to any person who gambles regularly, and they will tell you that parlays are their favorite thing to put money on. I personally have won a lot of my money from parlays, — two-game parlays especially.
Here are the ones I like this week.
BIG MONEY PARLAY:
Buffalo ML vs MIA (-800)
Atlanta ML vs CAR (-160)
Los Angeles ML @ HOU (-910)
Cincinnati ML @ NYJ (-510)
San Fransisco ML @ CHI(-180)
Tampa Bay ML @ NO (-240)
Dallas ML @ MIN (-150)
Kansas City vs NYG (-500)
$20 to win $193.92
TWO TEAM PARLAY:
San Francisco -3 @ CHI
Tampa Bay -5 @ NO
$50 to win $130