Ride or Pine: Week Nine
Graphic by Anna Gruben
Welcome back to Ride or Pine, the only place in the country where you can get both my football advice and at least two paragraphs of why Josh Jacobs is the worst starting running back in the NFL.
Unfortunately, it was a rough day for the rides last week. Carson Wentz, Cordarrelle Patterson and Tee Higgins were all pretty good plays, but the rest of that group definitely didn’t pull their weight.
As for the pines, I got almost every single one correct. The ones who did have good games out of that group were Melvin Gordon and Brandin Cooks. I also said to put Antonio Gibson on your bench, and after last week, I think Gibson is now unplayable at this point. Rookie Jaret Patterson had more rushing attempts than Gibson — not good if you are a Gibson owner.
I also want to start keeping track of how good my rides and my pines are doing to prove that I know what I am talking about. All of the players that I pick are around the same range in some aspect. So in theory, both lineups that I make every week should have relatively around the same amount of points. Obviously, I want my ride lineup to be more than my pine lineup though.
Here are the results from last week in PPR scoring format.
Note: Antonio Brown (ride) and Corey Davis (pine) both did not play so they canceled out.
Rides: 86 points
Pines: 85.1 points
Not the best week, but it was a weird week of football.
WEEK NINE RIDES:
QB: Joe Burrow vs CLE- Despite an embarrassing loss at the hand of the Jets last weekend, Joe Burrow still put up 29 points. In fact, Burrow is the eighth highest scoring QB in fantasy so far this season. He’s also at home against Cleveland this weekend — a defense that is allowing the fifth-most points to opposing quarterbacks. I’d play him over guys like Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert and Derek Carr.
RB: Khalil Herbert @ PIT- Since David Montgomery has been out, Khalil Herbert has taken this backfield all for himself. The past four weeks, Herbert is averaging 19.5 carries per game and 2.5 receptions. I know he didn’t score a touchdown last week, but the volume is there. I like him this week against Pittsburgh.
RB: James Conner @ SF- Through eight weeks of the season, James Conner has scored a touchdown in five of them. Even better, of those five, three of the games included a two-touchdown performance. I’m not saying he is the safest option, but he is the goal-line back in one of the best offenses in the league who has been scoring touchdowns left and right. He is a solid RB2 or a high-end flex play.
WR: Robert Woods vs TEN- Half of the reason I have Robert Woods on this list is so I can just call him Bobby Trees, which is without a doubt going to be the name of my first-born child. The other reason I decided to ride with him this week is because Bobby Trees is getting it done. In half-point scoring formats, Woods has scored at least 10 points in five straight weeks, which makes him a safe pick. Three of those games include performances of 28 points, 18 points and 15 points.
WR: Jaylen Waddle vs HOU- Don’t get discouraged with Jaylen Waddle. I know he had a bad performance against the Bills last week, but that Buffalo defense is really good. Despite only having four catches in that game, Waddle had 12 targets which is beyond an elite target share. He is obviously Tua’s favorite option, and as long as he is going to target Waddle that many times, he is a great play.
TE: Zach Ertz @ SF- If there is one thing that Kyler Murray has proved throughout his first three years with the Cardinals, it’s that he loves throwing to his tight end. He made Dan Arnold and Maxx Williams fantasy relevant, now he’s throwing to a former pro-bowler in Zach Ertz. I expect Ertz to be a top 10 tight end going forward for the rest of the season.
FLEX: Russell Gage @ NO- The number one receiver role is now wide open after Calvin Ridley said he was taking some time away from the game. Russell Gage is certainly the number one option to fill that role, but some might be scared off by his poor performances so far this season. I don’t have anything else to say other than a lot of targets just opened up, and they are going to go to Kyle Pitts and Gage.
D/ST: Los Angeles Rams vs TEN- Tennessee is a run first, play-action team. That’s who they have been for the past three-to-four years with Derrick Henry in the backfield. Now that Henry is most likely out for the year, I expect this Titans offense to be a little stagnant for the first week or two without him. Plus, this Rams defense just got Von Miller. Watch out for the Rams.
WEEK NINE PINES:
QB: Daniel Jones vs LV- This pick is as simple as me being a non-believer in Daniel Jones. He has shown he can get you 20 points, but I wouldn’t put my money on any other quarterback who is ranked where he is ranked to get under 10 points. This Las Vegas defense is not terrible and has shown that they can hold their own with great offenses. This Giants offense is not that.
RB: Damien Harris @ CAR- If you have been paying attention to Damien Harris the last couple weeks, he has actually been playing really well. He has at least one touchdown in his last four games and has scored at least 14 points in the last three. However, his matchup this week against the Panthers couldn’t be a worse one. Carolina is allowing the third least amount of points to running backs this season, and considering that Harris gets absolutely zero work in the passing game, I think this is the week where his streak ends. Stay away from him this week.
RB: Michael Carter @ IND- Michael Carter had a great performance in the upset over the Bengals last week, yet I haven't heard one person talk about it. He ran for 77 yards and a touchdown and caught nine passes for 95 yards. However, much like Damien Harris, his matchup this week is terrible. He will go against the Colts defense that allows the second least amount of points to running backs. Carter is good and had a good week, but the fact that he is on the Jets will not help him in the long term.
WR: Courtland Sutton @ DAL- The first week that Jerry Jeudy came back from injury, Courtland Sutton only saw two receptions on four targets. I wouldn’t expect a performance from him to be that bad every week, but I wouldn’t bank on him going for 100 yards on nine receptions either. He is also going against the Dallas defense and will see his fair share of Trevon Diggs, who definitely has his doubters, but he is a lot better than most corners in the NFL.
WR: Tyler Boyd vs CLE- It has been a pretty simple formula in predicting if Tyler Boyd will have a good week. Is Tee Higgins playing? If the answer is yes, then stay away from Boyd. Boyd is WR26 on the year.
TE: Evan Engram vs LV- I don’t even know why people continue to play Evan Engram. Yes, he is fast, and he is built like a receiver, but he still has Daniel Jones as his quarterback, and the breakout year that everyone gave up on last year is never going to happen.
FLEX: DeVante Parker vs HOU- I remember the days when Ryan Fitzpatrick was the quarterback for the Miami Dolphins, and all he would do is target DeVante Parker. Parker was fantasy relevant a couple years ago, but his time has now passed. Jaylen Waddle is Tua’s favorite target now, and that's all you need to know.
D/ST: San Francisco vs ARI- This defense played really well against Arizona their last time out, and I expect them to build upon that performance at home this week. Also, Kyler Murray is not 100% which can only help the Niners case.
BETTING LINES:
Record ATS: (14-4-1)
Last weeks record: (2-2)
HOW. ABOUT. THEM. COWBOYS.
I might as well just make this a Cowboys fan blog, because in case you missed the game on Sunday Night (which if you live in the state of Minnesota, you definitely didn’t), the Dallas Cowboys have moved to 7-0 against the spread.
Cooper Rush and the Cowboys have saved my streak of not having a losing week, so in return, we are going to bet on them again this week. I have not even looked at the spreads as I am writing this article right now, but I don’t care — book the Cowboys for whatever the spread is.
Dallas -9.5 vs DEN
Turns out that the spread is -9.5. Not going to lie, I don’t love this line, but I don’t care. Cowboys by a thousand.
Los Angeles Chargers -2 @ PHI
I am genuinely confused as to why the Chargers are only favored by TWO POINTS against the Eagles who have not had one good win all season. I know that Justin Herbert and the Chargers have not played well as of late, but this is the perfect game for them to turn it around.
I have gone with this logic in the past and it has worked almost every time. Who are you going to trust in a close game: Justin Herbert or Jalen Hurts? If your answer is anything other than Herbert, then you shouldn’t be gambling on sports in the first place.
Other than the quarterbacks, I truly believe that this Chargers team is just better in all three phases of the game. They have great offensive weapons, they have a great offensive line and they have some playmakers on defense.
The only way you lose money on this bet is if the Chargers straight up lose or if they lose by one, which I don’t see happening. You can even buy a point just in case.
I normally don’t like to place bets this early in the week, but this spread is too good to pass up.
MINNESOTA +5.5 @ BAL
If we have learned anything about the Minnesota Vikings, it is that they win games they aren’t supposed to win, and they lose games they have no business losing.
After a devastating loss at the hands of the Cowboys last week, everyone is pretty much writing off the Vikings, but let me tell you what is going to happen, because this happens every year. The Vikings are going to win a game or two that will start to make fans believe again. They will start talking about playoffs and maybe even their Super Bowl odds. That’s when they lose two or three in a row in the four remaining games of the season, leaving you more depressed than you were after the Dallas game.
That being said, this is the time to buy low on the Vikings. I said it last week, but this Minnesota team has the weapons to play with anybody, and they play at their best when they aren’t supposed to win.
Baltimore is coming off of their bye week, and I know the pieces they have on both sides of the ball, but I don’t know if they are the best team in the league that everyone is describing them as.
I honestly believe that this is a game that the Vikings are going to win, and even if they don’t, the Vikings have been in every game they have played this year. I don’t see them losing by more than a touchdown.
Plus, it’s fun to root for your team, especially when you have money on them.
CINCINNATI -2.5 vs CLE
I know what this looks like. I am going to bet on the team that just lost to the Jets.
This may seem scary at first glance, idotic even, but let me make the case.
Do you remember back in week three when the Titans lost to the Jets? Everybody was freaking out and wrote them off for the season. Of course that was until Tennessee ripped a four-game win streak that included beating teams like the Bills, Chiefs and Colts.
The Bengals have a lot of great wins on their schedule, and I truly think that this game against the Jets just got away from them. Going into the 4th quarter, the Bengals were up 14 points.
Obviously, you don’t want to lose a game like that, but I can’t see this Bengals team losing two games like that in a row to inferior competition, especially at home against the Browns.
Cleveland is a far cry away from the Super Bowl team that some analysts predicted them to be this year, and If you watched their game last week against the Steelers, you know exactly what I am talking about.
The bottom line is if you make this team throw the football, you will beat them. Baker Mayfield can’t beat you by himself, this defense is a little shaky and their offensive line is banged up.
As long as the Bengals play up to 75% of their full potential they will win this game by at least a touchdown.
If you made it this far, I thank you for your continued support. I will stop at nothing to make every single one of you some money.
BIG MONEY PARLAY:
Record: (0-1)
Indianapolis ML
Dallas ML
Minnesota +6
New England ML
Buffalo ML
Cincinnati ML
Los Angeles Chargers -2
Los Angeles Rams ML
$20 to win $352.44
THREE TEAM PARLAY:
Record: (0-1)
Minnesota +6
Cincinnati -2.5
Los Angeles Chargers -2
$50 to win $300